By Mike Ivcic
One round is in the books and only two upsets, but both came in a rather stunning manner. As expected, Anaheim gave the Sharks fits, and once again the playoffs were unkind to San Jose. They lost the first two games and home and never really recovered, dropping the series in six. Meanwhile Carolina and New Jersey played probably the closest, most contested series and with the Devils holding a 3-2 lead at home with two minutes to go in Game 7 and Martin Brodeur in net, the series looked over. It was, just not that way, as Carolina broke through with two goals in the final 1:20 to literally steal the series from NJ. That sets up the NHL’s dream matchup for the second round, albeit one round earlier than they would have liked, as Sidney Crosby’s Penguins will face Alex Ovechkin’s Capitals. Here’s a look at how that series – and the other three – will play out:
(First round: 6-2)
1) Boston vs 6) Carolina
The Eastern Conference undercard might actually wind up being better than the main event, as this series will pit a well-rested giant against a worn-down but battle-tested giant-killer. The Bruins got the kind of goaltending they needed from Tim Thomas in round one, but Montreal never really challenged him like they needed to. Now he’ll face a Hurricanes team that just bounced the greatest goalie ever from the postseason, so they have a ton of confidence, especially after the way they did it. Eric Staal needs to be heard from earlier in this series than 30 seconds to go in game seven, but that’s a credit to New Jersey. The Bruins need to follow that game plan and take the Canes out of their rhythm. Boston also got a great performance from Michael Ryder and Phil Kessel in the first series – they’ll need to repeat that by putting shot after shot on Cam Ward. Keep in mind that Ward has a Stanley Cup to his credit, and made huge saves down the stretch to allow the Canes an opportunity to come back against New Jersey. If you’re looking for a difference maker, he’s it in this series against a still-unproven Bruins offense.
Pick: Carolina 4-3
2) Washington vs 4)Pittsburgh
The NHL wanted this as an Eastern Conference Final, but they’re really just happy they got it at all. Crosby, Malkin, and Co. dispatched Philly in round one by making Martin Biron look extremely pedestrian, and the potential exists to do the same to rookie Simeon Varlamov, who has played only a dozen NHL games. Marc-Andre Fleury wasn’t the most spectacular in his own right against the Flyers, and he’ll have to improve tremendously against a high-powered Washington offense. On the other side, Varlamov posted a 1.17 GAA against the Rangers. If he can even come close to repeating that, the Caps are in good shape. Washington won 3 of 4 between the two teams this year, and they have home ice, so the initial advantage has to go to the Caps, who also have momentum coming off their comeback against NY. The emergence and maturation of players like Niklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, and Mike Green from regular season stalwarts to playoff veterans and clutch performers allows the Capitals to match Pittsburgh’s experience level. All that as a given, the only question that really matters is which defense will stop the other team’s explosive offense, and I don’t buy into the Pens defense.
Pick: Washington 4-2
2) Detroit vs 8)Anaheim
This series features the last two Cup winners, and when the Ducks won the Cup two seasons ago, they knocked off Detroit in the Conference Finals. There are very few teams in the NHL that have the personnel on their roster to handle the Red Wings offense, and the Ducks are one of them. With two bonafide superstar backliners in Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim can play nearly the entire game with at least one stud on the ice at all times. That doesn’t bode well for MVP-candidate Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Holmstrom, Marian Hossa, and the rest of the Wings offense, which conversely is the deepest offense in the entire league. It’s a matchup of fire versus fire, and lots of times what gets lost in these situations is the reverse matchup – Anaheim’s offense versus Detroit’s defense. As good as Nik Lidstrom and the rest of the defensive corps are for the Wings, they were exposed by a hard-working Columbus team in game four, a game the offense had to win 6-5 to finish off the Jackets. They won’t be able to simply outscore Anaheim with the way Jonas Hiller is playing in net, so they’ll need to tighten up on D in front of a sometimes shaky Chris Osgood. Expect to see Ty Conklin at some point in this series for the Wings, and if the Ducks had home ice, I’d take them. But they don’t.
Pick: Detroit 4-3
3) Vancouver vs 4) Chicago
Fans are yearning for a Hawks-Wings conference final, and they just might get it. Chicago gets a favorable matchup against a Canucks team that barely has more playoff experience that the Blackhawks, if any at all. The key here is Nikolai Khabibulin and the Hawks D being able to shut down the Sedin twins and the rest of Vancouver’s offense. Smart money says that as good as Roberto Luongo can be in goal for Vancouver, the Hawks will get their goals from likes of Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Martin Havlat. Thus, Chicago will have to ensure that the same is not true on the reverse end because they won’t be able to get into a scoring race with the Canucks. Meanwhile Vancouver needs SOMEthing from Mats Sundin, who needs to show that he actually cares about winning a Cup as much as he did winning a gold medal at the 2006 Olympics with Sweden. Likewise, they need to continue the balanced scoring attack that netted them 11 goals in 4 games by 8 different players against St. Louis. If they can keep that balance, they’ll be able to advance to their first conference finals since 1994. Therefore, it all comes back to the Chicago defense. How well will they do?
Pick: Chicago 4-2
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